Previewing the New Oil Series

Below is a tweetstorm I did previewing a new multi-part weekly series that will appear on the blog in early 2016. The topic: the proper understanding of Peak Oil. The first part of the series will present the one (and only) definition of Peak Oil and explain why it's important for people to understand and adhere to that definition, and how to avoid the number one mistake frequently made in these discussions: confusing Peak Oil and the Peak Oil Debate. They are related, but different. The next posts in the series will each examine an individual issue often used to proclaim that "Peak Oil is dead." These pronouncements are almost always incorrect because the author is focusing on an unrelated metric instead of the only metric directly related to Peak Oil: the rate of oil production.

Issues of oil supply and depletion are critical to our energy economy. It's important to discuss these issues soberly, rationally, and frequently. And productive discussions will only occur when all parties are operating on a set of common definitions and a proper understanding that serves as a barrier against misinformation.

Almost vacation, so time for a "proper understanding of Peak Oil" tweetstorm, since I'm writing a series on the topic in early 2016

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

1. The one & only definition of Peak Oil is "maximum rate of oil production"

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

2. People get into trouble because they often confuse Peak Oil & the Peak Oil Debate. They confuse what it IS and what it MEANS

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

3. You can't 'disagree' w/ Peak Oil (unless oil = infinite). You CAN disagree w/ various optimistic/pessimistic positions in Peak Oil Debate

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

4. The peak in oil prod rate is literally the "Peak" in "Peak Oil". Using the correct metric sort of matters here

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

5. Rate has a unit of time attached to it. It's not about how much oil is there in total, it's about how much you're producing

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

6. If someone asks about temp you don't answer by talking about humidity or dew point or time of sunrise. You talk about the temp

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

7. If someone asks "Are we at Peak Oil?" how would you go about answering that?

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

8. You'd probably look at a chart of oil prod and see if the high point is behind us or not https://t.co/cwkQPZwPUX

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

9. And if the high point is around now, you'd still have to wait a good amount of years just to be sure that peak was THE peak

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

10. The great irony is that Peak Oil and your best oil prod day ever - are the exact same day

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

11. The correct metric for peak oil is global oil prod rate. Not price, not reserves, not google trends, not # bad predictions, not demand

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

12. Remember that the peak is just a number, it doesn't care WHY the peak happens, it just cares that it's bigger than the other numbers

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

13. No, you can't say: "Oh, the Peak is because of above-ground instead of below-ground factors and thus doesn't count" The peak is the peak

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

14. There ARE legitimate ways to have an optimistic position in the Peak Oil debate, but they begin w/ arguing for rising rate of prod

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

15. That means one of these positions: 1) Increasing conv oil prod, 2) Increasing U.S. tight oil, 3) Increasing global tight oil

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

16. Or you could suggest a peak, but 4) blame it on Peak Demand, @RRapier discusses that here https://t.co/tOmP4mBlLR

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

17. It's reasonable to have an optimistic position in the Peak Oil Debate, but you don't get to go there by misrepresenting Peak Oil

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

18. It has to be in the form of "oil prod will continue to rise because X" OR "prod WILL peak, but it won't matter because Y"

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

19. Including that X or Y as justification for claims is a requirement of a good argument

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

20. I truly really want to see MORE people finding data to make and support those positions

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

21. But you can't just take some metric of the day, ignore prod rate, and pretend you're talking about Peak Oil when you're not

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

22. And that's what lots of people do, instead of making legitimate arguments, they pick a strawman of the day...

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

23. ... and use that strawman to weasel out of actually talking about oil production data

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

24. And they often get away with it, because the general public has a poor understanding of the issue /end

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

It's useful sometimes to go reread Campbell & Laherrère's 1998 article that launched the modern Peak Oil Debate https://t.co/Vde2DRo4Em

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

Or the @USGAO 2007 study of Peak Oil: https://t.co/cvI4dDXJWw

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015

And old @ASPOUSA videos to see what the Peak Oil people actually said in the past https://t.co/9Sg4CMXEdw

— D. Ray Long (@RayLongDC) December 23, 2015