To Kill Peak Oil, Don't You First Have to Beat It?

US production still has nearly 3 million barrels/day to gain before it meets the 1970 peak. 

Readers of this blog should already know that recent shale oil production increases don't change the Peak Oil story, even if it does get past the 1970 peak (which remains very much in doubt).  And that declining crude imports has as much to do with poor economic conditions causing demand declines as it does with increased production.

But even if we pretend that production eclipsing the 1970 peak would somehow "destroy Peak Oil", shouldn't analysts at least wait until that mark is crossed before celebrating? There just seems to be a lot of spiking the ball at the 5 yard line over in oil-optimism land. Prudhoe Bay wasn't that  long ago (the second post-1970 peak where a temporary increase soon returned to declines).