Beware Gushing Oil-Supply Forecasters

Shark, meet jump. The International Energy Agency asserted Tuesday that surging North American oil production “will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15.”

That is quite a claim. In that decade-and-a-half, China’s demand increased by 5.6 million barrels a day, fully 36% of the world’s overall growth in oil consumption. Oil went to north of $100 a barrel from about $20.

It is a fairly safe bet that even if the shale and sands boom does even better than the IEA forecasts, the world isn’t going back to $20 oil...
— Liam Denning, Wall Street Journal